AI As a Force Multiplier in the Middle East Defense Systems

The Promise of Artificial Intelligence

With the promise of AI, leading Middle Eastern countries eye the dawn of an AI-driven defense architecture. The modern defense infrastructure no longer mirrors the Great Wall of China, the cavalry of Genghis Khan, or the mass troop engagements of the World Wars. With AI’s ever-expanding applications in warfare, countries are shaping their national defense strategies around algorithms rather than battlefield formations. Such radical transformation redefines the structure of power- eventually shifting power from soldiers on the battlefield to data-driven systems and effective automation of defense capabilities.  

The Middle East, having become one of the testing grounds for AI and emerging military technologies, should prepare to lead the forefront of AI defense innovation. This is because artificial intelligence is not just a tool with broad applications, but rather a means between success and survival of state’s sovereignty. Countries that lead the defense innovation edge will dominate the future of military conflicts and shape strategic decisions. And when at war, these countries with a technological advantage, turbocharge their military attacks at speed and scale against military adversaries, as seen in the Hamas-Israel war, and to an extent in the Russia-Ukraine war, known as the living lab of AI warfare.  

Can AI Technology Strengthen Both Security and Prosperity?

Realizing its immense value, Israel, the UAE, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia invest heavily in the applications of AI in defense. The GCC region, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman demonstrate a high propensity for incorporating AI, and particularly focusing on indigenous defense production. Beyond the battlefield, strategic investment in AI is instrumental for continuous economic development and prosperity in the region. AI-powered defense systems are not just about military superiority- they are widely interconnected with securing economic interests, such as safeguarding critical trade routes, energy infrastructure, and maritime corridors.  

Given the Middle East’s history of conflict, the region is under constant threat of proxy warfare causing economic destabilization, especially by disrupting key trade routes. One of the critical applications of AI as a force multiplier shows in maritime security. A critical conduit for regional commerce, the waterways of the Middle East account for 12% of global trade passing through the Red Sea. Thus, AI-powered surveillance, threat detection, and cybersecurity measures prove critical to upholding the interests of Middle Eastern countries and beyond. On a general level, military uses of AI are diverse and constantly developing, such as: 

• Autonomous weapon and vehicle systems 

• Intelligent command and control systems 

• Performing predictive maintenance 

• Logistics and maintenance 

• Tightening cybersecurity 

• Intelligence and surveillance 

• Decision support systems 

• Simulations and training 

Artificial Intelligence, depending on its adoption, regulation, and weaponization, can serve as both a strategic equalizer and a source of disruption.

AI As a Strategic Equalizer or Disruptor? 

As nations increasingly integrate AI into their military systems, the technology could prove to level the playing field and give smaller nations (in terms of force posture) the technological tools to enhance their defense capabilities. On the other hand, given the technological edge of leading nations (superior in terms of force posture), AI could be a means to reinforce the dominance of established military powers. In either case, over the years, countries with technological superiority, in war or in peace, have had an unfair advantage to dictate the international security dynamics. In regions like the Middle East, AI poses a formidable challenge and a strategic advantage to regional security, depending on how Middle Eastern nations adopt, regulate, and to some extent, weaponize AI.  

For the Middle Eastern countries, particularly those leading in adopting AI in defense, one way ahead is to establish a framework for military AI applications. Such a military framework determines the future of the region’s overall national security. This is because of AI’s ability to influence every aspect of warfare, including defense innovation, industry supply chains, civil-military relations, military strategies, battle management, training protocols, forecasting, logistical operations, surveillance, data management, and measures for force protection. Most importantly, the calculus of balancing innovation and security requires scaling computing, capital, and energy. To power the region’s AI infrastructure, a regional military outlook on AI infrastructures and defense integration among the leading Middle Eastern countries is necessary, as follows:  

AI Integration in Defense Among Leading Middle Eastern Countries 

United Arab Emirates (UAE) 

Reflecting on Microsoft’s $1.5 billion investment in the UAE’s AI, the UAE has positioned itself at the center of AI-driven defense adoption through its state-owned company EDGE Group. EDGE integrates AI into autonomous weapons, cybersecurity, electronic warfare and unmanned systems. Key UAE’s AI-driven defense projects through EDGE Group include: 

• REACH-S UAVs: AI-enabled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for surveillance and combat missions. 

• SCORPIO Family of UGVs: Autonomous unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) designed for battlefield logistics and reconnaissance. 

• AI-Powered Cybersecurity: The UAE leverages AI for threat detection, cyber intelligence, and automated response to cyberattacks. 

Saudi Arabia 

Saudi Arabia’s military AI applications align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy. Vision 2030’s strategic framework emphasizes the integration of AI to develop indigenous defense technologies such as, autonomous systems, radar, and electronic warfare. By focusing on self-sufficiency, Vision 2030 aims to reduce reliance on foreign technology. This level of AI integration in defense is backed by the Prince Sultan Advanced Technology Research Institute (PSATRI), a government department in charge of facilitating technology transfer for defense and security sectors. Saudi Arabia currently invests $100 billion fund in AI and other technology and plans to put an additional $40 billion into AI companies in cooperation with Andreessen Horowitz, the Silicon Valley venture capital firm. Saudi Arabia’s key AI applications in defense are:  

• AI in Military Logistics: integrating AI-driven predictive maintenance and logistics management systems into military operations. 

• AI for Smart Border Security: AI-enhanced surveillance systems and drone monitoring for real-time threat detection and response, such as in Yemen. 

Israel 

A leading global player in military applications of AI, Israel is a pioneer of lethal autonomous weapons, AI-powered cyber warfare, and smart surveillance. Israel is ranked first in the Global Innovation Index 2023 in the Middle East and 14^th globally. With Israel's use of AI in the Gaza war, the bar has been raised for the future of modern warfighting capabilities. This is because through a program called Gospel, AI has been suggesting targets in Israel’s retaliatory campaign to root out Hamas following the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. With Israel’s current state of accelerating innovation capacity in defense, the country is poised to develop critical military capabilities, such as decision-making assistance, autonomous weapon systems, cybersecurity, and logistics. Among Israel’s key AI defense applications are:  

• Iron Dome: AI-based missile defense system that autonomously detects and intercepts threats. 

• Harop Loitering Munitions (AI Drones): AI-guided kamikaze drones that can track and strike enemy targets autonomously.  

• AI in Urban Warfare: AI-driven data analysis to enhance precision strikes and minimize collateral damage in conflicts, as seen in operations against Hamas in Gaza. 

Türkiye 

As part of the Turkish defense modernization efforts, Türkiye actively integrates AI into its defense sector, particularly in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), loitering munitions, and laser defense systems. Turkey's leveraging AI to bolster its defense capabilities can be widely seen in the following key categories:  

• AI Commander Assistant Developing Course of Action Project (HAMLE): Developed by ASELSAN, it uses reinforcement learning and AI algorithms to provide operational suggestions for corps, brigades, and battalions at the tactical level. 

• Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): such as Bayraktar TB2, has proven tactical in warfare demonstrating advanced autonomous capabilities in surveillance and combat operations. 

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 AI-Driven Defense Technologies and Applications 

AI Defense Technology	Military Application	What Does It Do?
Autonomous Combat Drones	Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie (USA)	AI-powered drones capable of independent navigation, reconnaissance, and targeted strikes. Used in high-risk missions to minimize human casualties.
AI-driven unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV)	Loyal Wingman (Australia)	AI-enabled UAVs act as autonomous wingmen for human pilots, enhancing mission capabilities and survivability.
AI-Powered Surveillance Systems	Hunter (Israel)	AI-driven image recognition and real-time data processing for intelligence gathering and threat identification.
AI-Enhanced Cyber Defense	Darktrace  (UK)	AI algorithms detect and neutralize cyber threats in real time, securing military networks and infrastructure.
AI-Driven Electronic Warfare (EW) Systems	Krasukha-4  (Russia)	AI-enabled systems that detect, jam, and counteract enemy communications and radar operations.

AI is steadily becoming the foundational technology on which countries develop the next generation of defense innovations.

Conventional Deterrence Vs. AI-Driven Warfare 

Increased spending into defense re-industrialization in the Middle East requires thinking beyond conventional deterrence measures of warfare. This simply means adapting to the evolving nature of modern warfare, which has rapidly transformed before our eyes, especially evident in the Ukraine-Russia and Hamas-Israel wars. In this context, the size of an army, heavy weaponry, and the ability to mobilize forces in large-scale warfare, which historically determined military strength, do not conform to the defense technological developments of the 21^st century. Rather, the arrival of AI has altered the equation by revolutionizing the data-driven systems that enable autonomous weapons, predictive intelligence, and cyber warfare. In the ongoing war in Ukraine, the autonomous AI-powered drones display increased accuracy, hitting targets three to four times more effectively than human-operated drones. AI is steadily becoming the foundational technology on which countries develop the next generation of defense innovations. 

AI’s pivotal role in modernizing defense has opened opportunities for resource-rich countries of the Middle East to strengthen their defense capabilities without traditional constraints of sheer manpower. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Middle East’s growing regional powerhouses, have positioned themselves to acquire a military edge by investing in AI research & development, particularly targeting indigenous defense production and emerging military applications in all multidomain warfighting operations- namely land, air, sea, cyber, and space. One of the tactical defense investments is autonomous drone technology, also called lethal autonomous weapons system (LAWS). Without requiring vast human resources, AI-powered drone technology has become a force multiplier capable of precision strikes, defense maneuvers, and conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR )- all at unprecedented speed. Israel's elite drone unit has emerged as lethal force since October 7, 2023, eliminating over 700 Hamas, Hezbollah operatives. With such lethal capabilities, regardless of who the actor is, LAWS and emerging AI-powered technologies continue to redefine the map of the Middle East. 

Under the premise of national security, AI could function more as a disruptor than an equalizer for Middle Eastern powers. 

With the sporadic rise of conflicts, the new map of the Middle East will potentially be defined by a single factor; security. This is especially true in the context of AI-enhanced cyberattacks, known as the weaponization of AI in cybersecurity. This can be extremely disruptive as AI technologies can be targeted to bypass AI-based threat detection systems. In a likely scenario, AI-powered cyberattacks can cripple a nation’s economy and disrupt critical infrastructure, financial systems, and communication networks. This is the grand problem for the leading Middle Eastern countries as they are reliant on the technological dominance of larger powers, such as the US, China, and in some rare cases, Russia. In this sense, built-in conventional measures in defense, such as static cyber defenses, human-led intelligence, and traditional missile defense systems...etc. prove ineffective against AI-driven warfare. The most effective approach to AI-driven warfare, which adapts in real time and outmaneuvers structured command strategies, is a multi-layered strategy that combines the following: 

• AI-driven cyber defense systems 

• Regional and international alliances 

• Strict regulatory frameworks  

• Investment in indigenous AI talent and;  

• Advanced counterintelligence measures to safeguard national security and digital sovereignty. 

Regardless of ambitious investments in AI, Middle Eastern power’s dependency on superpowers, who control and develop these technologies, to acquire foreign technology jeopardize and potentially compromises these nation’s sovereignty. Thus, where national defense is deeply intertwined with AI warfighting capabilities, AI could function more as a disruptor for the Middle Eastern powers and less of an equalizer. Ultimately, AI ‘s pivotal role can be a strategic determinant of the region’s stability in the future, however, that depends on how Middle Eastern countries navigate the opportunities and risks associated with the use of AI in security and defense capabilities of the region.  

AI As a Disruptor in Middle East Defense Systems

Reason	Category	Risk	Future Implications
AI-driven autonomous warfare	Lethal autonomous systems	Unmanned AI weapons reduce human oversight, increasing the risk of unintended conflicts and civilian casualties (Scharre, 2018).	Proxy wars escalate faster, making de-escalation harder. Increased risk of AI-driven arms races.
Asymmetric AI power among states	Military power imbalance	Countries with superior AI capabilities (US, China, Israel) will dominate, while weaker states struggle to keep up (Feldstein, 2019).	Smaller nations may resort to unconventional warfare, including AI-enhanced cyberterrorism.
Cyber warfare & AI-enhanced attacks	Cybersecurity & defense	AI-powered cyberattacks can disable military infrastructure, paralyze command structures, and spread disinformation (Brundage et al., 2018).	Increased vulnerability of critical defense systems; blurred lines between war and peacetime operations.
AI enabled surveillance for military control	Intelligence & counterinsurgency	AI-powered surveillance could help states suppress insurgencies but may also lead to overreach and backlash (Rand Corporation, 2020).	Erosion of trust between governments and populations; risk of AI surveillance tools falling into extremist hands.
AI’s role in proxy conflicts	Regional instability	AI-powered warfare could further entrench foreign influence in conflicts, as seen in drone warfare in Libya and Yemen (UN Panel of Experts, 2021).	AI will deepen regional proxy wars, with non-state actors gaining access to advanced military technologies.

Forging Ahead 

The race for AI dominance is well underway, redrawing the traditional foundations of military power in the Middle East. Defense modernization is taking a data-driven approach powered by AI technology. The Middle East’s defense largely depends on the many benefits AI has to offer, ranging from data-driven systems that enable autonomous weapons, predictive intelligence, and cyber warfare. Advancing and integrating AI into the Middle East’s military is a tactical investment that potentially puts the region at the forefront of AI defense innovation- necessary not only to secure military objectives but also to safeguard the economic and strategic interests of the region collectively.  

Nonetheless, the path towards AI-driven military prowess comes with associated vulnerabilities, such as concerns over sovereignty. As countries of the Middle East continue to rely on foreign technology to power AI-driven indigenous defense systems, these countries could be on the verge of compromising strategic autonomy. The disruptive potential of AI poses a significant threat to the region's national security and economic stability, particularly with the growing risk of AI-driven cyberattacks. For AI to effectively integrate into the Middle East’s defense strategies, leading nations such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel must carefully assess the future of AI-driven warfare, considering both its equalizing and disruptive aspects. These countries must shape defense policies that prioritize the geopolitical stability of the region. 

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